
Canadians Are Spending Again
Brand new data from Stats Canada reveals that retail sales in Canada shot upwards in January 2024, increasing 2.5% compared to January 2023. This comes after a 0.9% year-over-year increase in December 2023.
11 of the 18 sales classes tracked by Stats Canada saw spending increases.
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Canadians are spending alot on vehicles. $11 billion per month, in fact.
The largest increase in retail sales came from vehicle sales, which were up 7.9% compared to last year. Specifically, new vehicle sales were up 8% over last year, and used vehicles sales were up 7.7%.
Other areas saw large gains as well, with food and beverage sales up 4.1% from last January.
Some Notable Declines
Household and automotive fuel sales were down 7% in January, likely because of the unseasonably warm temperatures in Canada, and because fuel prices had dropped compared to 2023.
Recreational vehicle sales were also down 14.2% from 2023 – down to $556 million dollars from $648 million in sales in 2023, as Canadians’ disposable income shrank likely due to cost of living increases, such as rent, mortgages and interest payments.
Advanced February Data Hot as Well
Advanced Stats Canada retail sales were also up in February by 4.8%, suggesting that we are seeing a multi-month trend of increasing retail spending.
It should be noted that this data is acquired via a survey which Stats Canada sends to companies on an optional basis, and is subject to revision.
These figures are also not population or inflation adjusted, and looking at this data on a per capita and inflation adjusted basis would suggest flat spending in January with a small increase in February.
Awakening Consumers, Rising Oil Prices to Put the Bank of Canada in a Bind

Strong retail sales are suggestive of a strong economy, and this will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to hold off on rate cuts.
Oil prices are on the rise as well — up to nearly $90 a barrel as of April 2024; as such, we will likely see fuel retail sales and CPI jump when April data is released in the summer.
All of these factors will be considered by the Bank of Canada as part of their rate cut decisions this spring and summer, and this new data will certainly add no urgency for them to cut rates.