Federal Government Worker Count Up 100,000 Since 2015
The Federal Government employee count is set to surge to the highest level ever recorded in 2024, according to a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer of Canada.
As per their analysis (which was derived from various departmental plans) they estimate that number of Federal Government full-time equivalent employees in 2024 is set to jump to 439,000, up from 431,698 in 2023.
This is 100,000 more employees than in 2015, and 57,000 more than pre-pandemic.
Actual Employee Count May Be Higher: PBO
The report highlights that the 2024 budget is expected to include new spending measures which will require new FTEs that aren’t currently accounted for in the departmental plans.
“Current plans do not include additional FTEs that will likely result from potential new measures announced by the Government in Budget 2024.” the PBO writes.
Examples of recent, unfunded, spending commitments from the Federal Government are:
- a national pharmacare program,
- a national school food program,
- and, money to improve Canadian productivity.
Employee Estimates Keep Rising, PBO Notes
The PBO also warns that they have noted a pattern of upward revised estimates.
“A pattern has emerged where the projected profile of FTEs (reaching a peak and then declining), is revised upward across the planning horizon in subsequent DPs” the PBO writes in their report.
The PBO is referring to internal government departmental plans which tend to low-ball future employee counts.
For example, in 2021, the Government’s own estimated number of Federal Government FTEs for 2024 was 390,000. This was followed by a 2022 estimate of 419,000 employees for 2024.
And finally, the latest estimate from 2023 points to 439,000 employees in 2024.
In the span of 3 years, the Government’s own 2024 employee estimate has jumped by 49,000 employees.
(These estimates are labeled in PBO chart at the beginning of this article.)
Federal Government Thinks Employee Count Will Fall by 2027
The Federal Government estimates that employee count will fall from 2025 until 2027. Their internal estimates peg the number of employees at 400,000 in 2027, a decrease of 39,000 employees over 3 years.
Though, the rationale on exactly how this will materialize is not fully fleshed out in their departmental plans; given the history of revisions, and recent spending announcements, using caution with their estimates is warranted.
